Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano — Parma Round of 16
Rincon D.
Daniel Rincon faces Stefano Napolitano in the Parma round of 16 on clay. Stefano Napolitano holds the paper edge — ranked #243, a roughly 140-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Napolitano S. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Daniel Rincon 34 games in 14 days, Stefano Napolitano 60.
- Last match: Daniel Rincon won all two sets in tiebreaks against Pedro Martinez.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (15 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadRincon D.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d) · Napolitano S.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 31 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
When it starts
5th on CENTER COURT · not before Not Before 8:00 PM · 4 matches still to finish ahead
- 1Carballes Baena R. v Travaglia S.
- 2Cecchinato M. v Bondioli F.
- 3Ofner S. v Dalla Valle E.
- 4Galan D. v Van Assche L.
- 5Rincon D. v Napolitano S.This match
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.