Gustavo Heide vs Maxim Mrva — Poznan Round of 16
Heide G.
Gustavo Heide faces Maxim Mrva in the Poznan round of 16 on clay. Gustavo Heide is the paper favourite — ranked #182, a roughly 190-point clay Elo advantage — but Maxim Mrva arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 10 on clay to Gustavo Heide's 5.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Heide G. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Last match: Gustavo Heide dropped just 4 games past Daniel Michalski.
- Last match: Maxim Mrva dropped just 5 games past Akira Santillan.
- Surface form: Gustavo Heide 5 of 10, Maxim Mrva 7 of 10 on clay recently — Maxim Mrva the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
When it starts
4th on CENTRE COURT · not before Not Before 17:00 · 2 matches still to finish ahead
- 1Brunclik P. v Broska F.
- 2Kasnikowski M. v Choinski J.
- 4Heide G. v Mrva M.This match
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.