Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski — Poznan Quarter-final
GBR
Heide G.
Gustavo Heide faces Jan Choinski in the Poznan quarter-final on clay. Jan Choinski holds the paper edge — ranked #106.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:22 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Heide G. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Gustavo Heide comes in with 1 days of rest and 16 games in 14d, vs Jan Choinski's 1 and 74.
- Last match: Gustavo Heide dropped just 6 games past Maxim Mrva.
- Surface form: Gustavo Heide 5 of 10, Jan Choinski 7 of 10 on clay recently — Jan Choinski the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadHeide G.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d) · Choinski J.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 37 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.