Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami — Parma Round of 32
Simakin I.
Ilia Simakin faces Jacopo Vasami in the Parma round of 32 on clay. Ilia Simakin is the paper favourite — ranked #301 — but Jacopo Vasami arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 5 on clay to Ilia Simakin's 0.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Simakin I. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Ilia Simakin 54 games in 14 days, Jacopo Vasami 61.
- Form trend: Jacopo Vasami's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Ilia Simakin's has cooled.
- Surface form: Ilia Simakin 0 of 5, Jacopo Vasami 3 of 5 on clay recently — Jacopo Vasami the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadSimakin I.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 35 games (7d) · Vasami J.: 11 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.