Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova — Nottingham Round of 32
Raducanu E.
Emma Raducanu faces Karolina Pliskova in the Nottingham round of 32 on grass. Emma Raducanu holds the paper edge — ranked #42.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Pliskova K. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Karolina Pliskova has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 85 vs Emma Raducanu's 65).
- Fatigue load: Karolina Pliskova carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (11 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadRaducanu E.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 70 games (7d) · Pliskova K.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 76 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.