Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley — Nottingham Round of 32
AUS
Sweeny D.
Dane Sweeny faces Jacob Fearnley in the Nottingham round of 32 on grass. Dane Sweeny holds the paper edge — ranked #132, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Recent grass form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Fearnley J. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Jacob Fearnley has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 87 vs 45).
- Fatigue load: Jacob Fearnley carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
- Head-to-head: Dane Sweeny leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Brisbane 2026.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadSweeny D.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 98 games (7d) · Fearnley J.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 115 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | Brisbane | Q1 | hard | Dane Sweeny | 6-1 7-6(4) |