Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato — Parma Round of 32
Cecchinato M.Marco Cecchinato faces Carlo Alberto Caniato in the Parma round of 32 on clay. Marco Cecchinato holds the paper edge — ranked #172, a roughly 150-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Cecchinato M. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Fatigue load: Marco Cecchinato carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
- Surface form: Both 6 of 10 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadCecchinato M.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 79 games (7d) · Caniato C.: 5 days rest · 3 matches, 70 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.