Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar — London Round of 32

London · ATP · Round of 32

PER

Ignacio Buse

#35ATP

1845ELO

1596Grass ELO

$804kYTD

$1.3MCAREER

22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWWWWWWWWW

—

Sets

Tuesday, 16 June 2026 · 09:00

grass

ESP

Rafael Jodar

#23ATP

1983ELO

1692Grass ELO

$1.0MYTD

$1.3MCAREER

19 yrs · 191 cm

Last 10

LWWWWLWWWL

Buse I.

Jodar R.

Ignacio Buse faces Rafael Jodar in the London round of 32 on grass. Rafael Jodar holds the paper edge — ranked #23, a roughly 100-point grass Elo advantage.

Around the match

“It's a surface I can do well on”
Jodar R.ATP Tour ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC

Buse I.19%

Jodar R.81%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Jodar R. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Ignacio Buse comes in with 20 days of rest and 0 games in 14d, vs Rafael Jodar's 12 and 72.
Form trend: Form trajectories diverge: Ignacio Buse rising, Rafael Jodar cooling.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Buse I.

5.0

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Jodar R.

6.0

Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Form & Matchup

3.8Grass Elo 1596

Surface ELO

6.2+96 Grass Elo edge

3.3Overall Elo 1845

ELO gap

6.7Overall Elo 1983

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

0.0

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3.0Clay → Grass

Surface transition

3.0Clay → Grass

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Buse I.Rising

Jodar R.Sliding

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 39 matches

Statistics

This season

Buse I.Jodar R.

1st serve in·Even

62%

64%

1st serve points won·Even

73%

71%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

49%

55%

Service points won·Even

64%

66%

Return points won·Even

37%

41%

Break points saved·Even

64%

62%

Aces / match·Slight edge

5.1

4.1

Double faults / match·Clear edge

2.6

1.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 39). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Buse I.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Jodar R.

Jodar R.serving91% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Buse I.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Buse I.Jodar R.

Clutch Rating·Clear edge

Break points saved·Even

Break points won·Dominant

Deciding sets·Clear edge

100

Tiebreaks·Slight edge

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Buse I.Jodar R.

Freshness·Slight edge

100

Buse I.: 20 days rest · Jodar R.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Fastbig serves, short points

SlowFast

Weather forecast

18°COvercast

Wind 14 km/hHumidity 69%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.