Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena — Parma Round of 32
Damas M.Miguel Damas faces Roberto Carballes Baena in the Parma round of 32 on clay. Roberto Carballes Baena holds the paper edge — ranked #191, a roughly 190-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Carballes Baena R. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Miguel Damas 68 games in 14 days, Roberto Carballes Baena 151.
- Under pressure: Roberto Carballes Baena has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 62 vs Miguel Damas's 0).
- Surface form: Miguel Damas 2 of 10, Roberto Carballes Baena 7 of 10 on clay recently — Roberto Carballes Baena the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadDamas M.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 33 games (7d) · Carballes Baena R.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 94 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.