Alex De Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo — London Round of 32
London · ATP · Round of 32
#6ATP
1979ELO
1825Grass ELO
$2.0MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
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—
Sets
Monday, 15 June 2026 ·
grass
#54ATP
1731ELO
1671Grass ELO
$370kYTD
$3.0MCAREER
24 yrs · 203 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
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Alex De Minaur faces Gabriel Diallo in the London round of 32 on grass. Alex De Minaur holds the paper edge — ranked #6, leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 150-point grass Elo advantage.
Key context
- Head-to-head: Alex De Minaur leads the head-to-head 2–0, but this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Paris Masters 2025.
- Fatigue load: Gabriel Diallo carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
- Win streak: Alex De Minaur arrives on a 3-match winning run.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 01:20 UTCDe Minaur A.83%
Diallo G.17%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Strong favourite · De Minaur A. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match7.8
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScoreForm & Matchup
6.9+154 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO3.1Grass Elo 1671
8.1Overall Elo 1978
ELO gap1.9Overall Elo 1731
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H5.0First meeting on grass
8.38 of last 10 on grass
Surface form5.36 of last 10 on grass
7.03-match win streak
Win streak0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Conditions
Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
15°CMainly clear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 63%
Head to head
2–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-27 | Paris Masters | R32 | hard | Alex De Minaur | 7-6(8) 4-6 6-3 |
| 2023-08-07 | Canada Masters | R32 | hard | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 7-5 |
Statistics
Recent form58%1st serve in+10%68%
71%1st serve points won71%
56%2nd serve points won+12%44%
65%Service points won+2%63%
39%Return points won+5%34%
63%Break points saved+7%56%
4.3Aces / match+2.66.9
2.7Double faults / match+0.22.5
Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.