Manon Leonard vs Alina CharaevaFigueira Da Foz

Figueira Da Foz · CHALLENGER
#315WTA
1300ELO
1317Hard ELO
25 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLLWLLWL
Sets
Monday, 15 June 2026 ·
hard
CENTRAL · 3rd on
#129WTA
1712ELO
1601Hard ELO
24 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWLLWWWW
Leonard M.
vs
Charaeva A.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:20 UTC
Leonard M.13%
Charaeva A.87%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Charaeva A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.5Hard Elo 1317
Surface ELO
8.5+283 Hard Elo edge
3.0Overall Elo 1300
ELO gap
7.0Overall Elo 1712
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.23 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.75 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 5
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

20 vs 30 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
61%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
43%
46%
Service points won·Slight edge
54%
59%
Return points won·Even
42%
43%
Break points saved·Even
57%
60%
Aces / match·Even
2.8
2.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.7
4.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Leonard M.serving53% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Charaeva A.

Charaeva A.serving67% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Leonard M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
83

Charaeva A.: 7 days rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

3rd on CENTRAL · not before Not before 1:00 PM · 1 match still to finish ahead

  1. 1Osuigwe W. v Voloshchuk A.
  2. 3Leonard M. v Charaeva A.This match
  3. 4Vickery S. v Haddad Maia B.
  4. 5Bandecchi S. v Zvonareva V.

Conditions

Weather forecast
18°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 88%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.