Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen ZhangNottingham Round of 32

Nottingham · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#219ATP
1569ELO
1484Grass ELO
18 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWLWWLLLWW
Sets
Monday, 15 June 2026 ·
grass
Court 5 · 2nd on
#214ATP
1659ELO
1581Grass ELO
29 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWLWWLL
Blanch D.
vs
Zhang Z.

Darwin Blanch faces Zhizhen Zhang in the Nottingham round of 32 on grass. Zhizhen Zhang holds the paper edge — ranked #214, a roughly 100-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC
Blanch D.19%
Zhang Z.81%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Zhang Z. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.8Grass Elo 1484
Surface ELO
6.2+96 Grass Elo edge
3.9Overall Elo 1569
ELO gap
6.1Overall Elo 1659
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
Surface form
7.37 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Blanch D.Stable
Zhang Z.Rising

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

28 vs 22 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
49%
Service points won·Even
63%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
39%
34%
Break points saved·Even
59%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
6.4
7.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.4
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Blanch D.serving91% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Zhang Z.

Zhang Z.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Blanch D.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
67
53

Blanch D.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 55 games (7d) · Zhang Z.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 101 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

2nd on Court 5 · not before Followed By · 1 match still to finish ahead

  1. 1Nardi L. v Bertola R.
  2. 2Blanch D. v Zhang Z.This match
  3. 3Rocha H. v C. O'Connell

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
16°CDrizzle
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 74%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.