Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang — Nottingham Round of 16

Nottingham · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
POR
Jaime Faria
#94ATP
1709ELO
1617Grass ELO
$527kYTD
$1.4MCAREER
22 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWWWLWW
—
Sets
Tuesday, 16 June 2026 ·
grass
CENTRE COURT · 4th on
Zhizhen Zhang
CHNQ
Zhizhen Zhang
#214ATP
1635ELO
1560Grass ELO
29 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWLWWW
Faria J.
vs
Zhang Z.

Jaime Faria faces Zhizhen Zhang in the Nottingham round of 16 on grass. Jaime Faria is the paper favourite — ranked #94, a roughly 60-point grass Elo advantage — but Zhizhen Zhang rides a 3-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTC
Faria J.63%
Zhang Z.37%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Faria J. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Faria J.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Zhang Z.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.7+57 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.3Grass Elo 1560
5.9Overall Elo 1709
ELO gap
4.1Overall Elo 1635
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.38 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
8.18 of last 10 on grass
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Faria J.Stable
Zhang Z.Rising

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

42 vs 25 matches

Statistics

This season
Faria J.Zhang Z.
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
49%
Service points won·Even
64%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
34%
Break points saved·Even
59%
61%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.7
7.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.5
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (42 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Faria J.serving92% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Zhang Z.

Zhang Z.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Faria J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Faria J.Zhang Z.
Clutch Rating·Even
54
56
Break points saved·Clear edge
76
94
Break points won·Slight edge
22
14
Deciding sets·Slight edge
81
91
Tiebreaks·Dominant
76
40

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Faria J.Zhang Z.
Freshness·Dominant
100
50

Faria J.: 16 days rest · Zhang Z.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 119 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

4th on CENTRE COURT · not before Followed By · up next on court

  1. 4Faria J. v Zhang Z.This match
  2. 4Gill F. v Gaston H.

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
24°COvercast
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 45%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.