Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel — Ilkley Quarter-final

Ilkley · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final

AUS

Dane Sweeny

#132ATP

1537ELO

1412Grass ELO

$212kYTD

$816kCAREER

25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLLLLLWWL

—

Sets

Saturday, 13 June 2026 · 10:00

grass

GBR

Toby Samuel

#150ATP

1680ELO

1544Grass ELO

$44kYTD

$158kCAREER

23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLWWWLLLW

Dane Sweeny faces Toby Samuel in the Ilkley quarter-final on grass. Dane Sweeny holds the paper edge — ranked #132.

Key context

Last match: Toby Samuel dropped just 6 games past August Holmgren.
Last match: Dane Sweeny edged Billy Harris in two tight sets (6–4 7–6).
Fatigue load: Toby Samuel carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:22 UTC

Sweeny D.14%

Samuel T.86%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Samuel T. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Sweeny D.

4.6

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Samuel T.

6.5

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

3.4Grass Elo 1412

Surface ELO

6.6+132 Grass Elo edge

3.2Overall Elo 1537

ELO gap

6.8Overall Elo 1680

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

3.32 of last 8 on grass

Surface form

7.87 of last 10 on grass

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Country comfort

8.5Home country · 3/4 here

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form

Sweeny D.Samuel T.

63%1st serve in+1%64%

66%1st serve points won+1%67%

51%2nd serve points won+6%57%

60%Service points won+4%64%

41%Return points won+2%43%

62%Break points saved62%

3Aces / match+0.52.5

3.7Double faults / match+1.62.1

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.