Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano — Ilkley Quarter-final

Ilkley · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final

GBR

Oliver Tarvet

#342ATP

1526ELO

1595Grass ELO

22 yrs

Last 10

WWLLWLWWLL

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Sets

Saturday, 13 June 2026 · 10:00

grass

ITA

Filippo Romano

#355ATP

1436ELO

1418Grass ELO

20 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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Oliver Tarvet faces Filippo Romano in the Ilkley quarter-final on grass. Oliver Tarvet is the paper favourite — ranked #342, a roughly 180-point grass Elo advantage — but Filippo Romano rides a 4-match win streak.

Key context

Last match: Oliver Tarvet dropped just 5 games past Tristan Schoolkate.
Fatigue load: Filippo Romano carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
Win streak: Filippo Romano arrives on a 4-match winning run.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:21 UTC

Tarvet O.78%

Romano F.22%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Tarvet O. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Tarvet O.

6.4

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Romano F.

5.4

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

7.2+177 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

2.8Grass Elo 1418

6.1Overall Elo 1526

ELO gap

3.9Overall Elo 1436

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

7.68 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

8.98 of last 9 on grass

Win streak

7.04-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

0.03 three-setters in 14 days

9.1Home country · 6/7 here

Country comfort

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast

13°COvercast

Wind 25 km/hHumidity 75%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form

Tarvet O.Romano F.

60%1st serve in+4%64%

69%1st serve points won+3%72%

48%2nd serve points won+1%47%

61%Service points won+2%63%

40%Return points won+3%37%

57%Break points saved+10%67%

4.9Aces / match+0.45.3

2.9Double faults / match+0.62.3

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (17 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.