Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef — Ilkley Semi-final
Ilkley · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
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Sets
Saturday, 13 June 2026 ·
grass
Mary Stoiana faces Celine Naef in the Ilkley semi-final on grass. Mary Stoiana holds the paper edge — ranked #142. Recent grass form is closely matched.
Key context
- Fatigue load: Mary Stoiana carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 2 in the past fortnight.
- Win streak: Both arrive in form — Mary Stoiana on a 3-match run, Celine Naef on 5.
- Surface form: Both 5 of 6 on grass recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 20:21 UTCStoiana M.46%
Naef C.54%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchForm & Matchup
3.6Grass Elo 1460
Surface ELO6.4+109 Grass Elo edge
4.5Overall Elo 1570
ELO gap5.5Overall Elo 1622
7.0Leads 1–0 on grass
H2H3.0Trails 0–1 on grass
8.45 of last 6 on grass
Surface form8.48 of last 10 on grass
7.03-match win streak
Win streak9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
Recent form64%1st serve in+3%61%
63%1st serve points won+6%69%
45%2nd serve points won+2%47%
56%Service points won+4%60%
46%Return points won+1%47%
52%Break points saved+6%58%
1.4Aces / match+2.33.7
3Double faults / match+0.53.5
Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Draw
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Krueger A.
Vidmanova D.
Stoiana M.
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