Jesper De Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle — Cattolica Semi-final

Cattolica · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
Jesper De Jong
NED
Jesper De Jong
#83ATP
1651ELO
1647Clay ELO
$261kYTD
$2.0MCAREER
26 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWWLWW
—
Sets
Saturday, 13 June 2026 ·
clay
Enrico Dalla Valle
ITA
Enrico Dalla Valle
#441ATP
1461ELO
1434Clay ELO
28 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWLWWL

Jesper De Jong faces Enrico Dalla Valle in the Cattolica semi-final on clay. Jesper De Jong holds the paper edge — ranked #83, a roughly 210-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Jesper De Jong carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Jesper De Jong 8 of 10, Enrico Dalla Valle 7 of 10 on clay recently — Jesper De Jong the sharper of late.
  • Win streak: Both arrive on three-match winning runs.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC
De Jong J.73%
Dalla Valle E.27%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · De Jong J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
De Jong J.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Dalla Valle E.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.7+212 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.3Clay Elo 1434
7.4Overall Elo 1651
ELO gap
2.6Overall Elo 1460
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.18 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.57 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Country comfort
10.0Home country · 3/3 here
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 7 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast
26°CMainly clear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 38%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form
De Jong J.Dalla Valle E.
58%1st serve in+14%72%
70%1st serve points won+4%66%
48%2nd serve points won+6%54%
60%Service points won+2%62%
40%Return points won+1%41%
58%Break points saved+5%63%
6.5Aces / match+3.23.3
4.1Double faults / match+3.50.6

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw

R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
De Jong J.
Milic O.
6-17-63
Bondioli F.
Caniato C.
7-636-756-4
Guillen Meza A.
Simakin I.
3-67-657-65
Nesterov P.
Cecchinato M.
5-73-6
Lajovic D.
Forejtek J.
6-25-76-4
Pieri S.
Roca Batalla O.
5-73-6
Kasnikowski M.
Dalla Valle E.
5-72-6
Sanchez Jover C.
Dodig M.
6-46-4
Broady L.
Xilas I.
6-33-66-2
Basile P.
Brancaccio R.
6-746-74
Ferrari G.
Callejon Hernando S.
7-666-0
Rehberg M.
Carballes Baena R.
4-64-6
Bueno G.
Forti F.
5-76-46-72
Ribecai M.
Agamenone F.
6-36-753-6
Tobon M.
Vasilev A.
4-62-6
Guerrieri A.
Svrcina D.
6-33-66-4
De Jong J.
Bondioli F.
6-24-66-4
Guillen Meza A.
Cecchinato M.
3-67-644-6
Lajovic D.
Roca Batalla O.
6-746-46-74
Dalla Valle E.
Sanchez Jover C.
7-646-1
Broady L.
Brancaccio R.
2-64-6
Ferrari G.
Carballes Baena R.
4-64-6
Forti F.
Agamenone F.
6-36-756-1
Vasilev A.
Guerrieri A.
6-755-7
De Jong J.
Cecchinato M.
6-34-66-1
Roca Batalla O.
Dalla Valle E.
6-721-6
Brancaccio R.
Carballes Baena R.
4-66-33-6
Forti F.
Guerrieri A.
7-675-4
De Jong J.
Dalla Valle E.
Carballes Baena R.
—
—