Jesper De Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena — Cattolica Final

Cattolica · CHALLENGER · Final
Jesper De Jong
NED
Jesper De Jong
#83ATP
1651ELO
1647Clay ELO
$261kYTD
$2.0MCAREER
26 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWWWLW
—
Sets
Sunday, 14 June 2026 ·
clay
Roberto Carballes Baena
ESP
Roberto Carballes Baena
#191ATP
1617ELO
1600Clay ELO
$111kYTD
$6.3MCAREER
33 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWLWWL

Jesper De Jong faces Roberto Carballes Baena in the Cattolica final on clay. Jesper De Jong holds the paper edge — ranked #83, a roughly 50-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:22 UTC
De Jong J.61%
Carballes Baena R.39%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · De Jong J. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
De Jong J.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Carballes Baena R.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.6+46 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.4Clay Elo 1600
5.4Overall Elo 1651
ELO gap
4.6Overall Elo 1616
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
8.38 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.67 of last 10 on clay
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast
33°COvercast
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 25%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form
De Jong J.Carballes Baena R.
58%1st serve in+8%66%
70%1st serve points won70%
48%2nd serve points won+1%49%
60%Service points won+3%63%
40%Return points won+2%38%
58%Break points saved58%
6.5Aces / match+1.64.9
4.1Double faults / match+1.52.6

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw

R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
De Jong J.[1]
Milic O.
6-17-63
Bondioli F.
Caniato C.[1]
7-636-756-4
Guillen Meza A.
Simakin I.
3-67-657-65
Nesterov P.[4]
Cecchinato M.[5]
5-73-6
Lajovic D.[3]
Forejtek J.
6-25-76-4
Pieri S.[9]
Roca Batalla O.
5-73-6
Kasnikowski M.
Dalla Valle E.
5-72-6
Sanchez Jover C.[3]
Dodig M.[8]
6-46-4
Broady L.[10]
Xilas I.
6-33-66-2
Basile P.
Brancaccio R.
6-746-74
Ferrari G.[8]
Callejon Hernando S.[7]
7-666-0
Rehberg M.
Carballes Baena R.[9]
4-64-6
Bueno G.[6]
Forti F.[5]
5-76-46-72
Ribecai M.
Agamenone F.
6-36-753-6
Tobon M.[11]
Vasilev A.
4-62-6
Guerrieri A.
Svrcina D.[2]
6-33-66-4
De Jong J.[1]
Bondioli F.
6-24-66-4
Guillen Meza A.
Cecchinato M.[5]
3-67-644-6
Lajovic D.[3]
Roca Batalla O.
6-746-46-74
Dalla Valle E.
Sanchez Jover C.[3]
7-646-1
Broady L.[10]
Brancaccio R.
2-64-6
Ferrari G.[8]
Carballes Baena R.[9]
4-64-6
Forti F.[5]
Agamenone F.
6-36-756-1
Vasilev A.
Guerrieri A.
6-755-7
De Jong J.[1]
Cecchinato M.[5]
6-34-66-1
Roca Batalla O.
Dalla Valle E.
6-721-6
Brancaccio R.
Carballes Baena R.[9]
4-66-33-6
Forti F.[5]
Guerrieri A.
7-676-4
De Jong J.[1]
Dalla Valle E.
2-67-676-2
Carballes Baena R.
Forti F.
3-66-16-4
De Jong J.
Carballes Baena R.