Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti — Cattolica Semi-final
Roberto Carballes Baena faces Francesco Forti in the Cattolica semi-final on clay. Roberto Carballes Baena is the paper favourite — ranked #191, a roughly 310-point clay Elo advantage — but Francesco Forti arrives in form, winning 8 of their last 10 on clay to Roberto Carballes Baena's 6.
Key context
- Last match: Francesco Forti edged Andrea Guerrieri in two tight sets (7–6 6–4).
- Fatigue load: Francesco Forti carries the heavier recent load — 4 three-setters to 3 in the past fortnight.
- Win streak: Both arrive in form — Roberto Carballes Baena on a 3-match run, Francesco Forti on 5.
- Surface form: Roberto Carballes Baena 6 of 10, Francesco Forti 8 of 10 on clay recently — Francesco Forti the sharper of late.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 21:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Carballes Baena R. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
Recent formAverages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.