Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson — Modena Quarter-final

Modena · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final

ESP

Kaitlin Quevedo

#107WTA

1713ELO

1661Clay ELO

20 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLWWWWWWW

—

Sets

Friday, 12 June 2026 · 11:00

clay

CZE

Laura Samson

#137WTA

1631ELO

1634Clay ELO

18 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLLLWWLWL

Kaitlin Quevedo faces Laura Samson in the Modena quarter-final on clay. Kaitlin Quevedo holds the paper edge — ranked #107, a roughly 30-point clay Elo advantage.

Key context

Surface form: Kaitlin Quevedo 8 of 9, Laura Samson 5 of 9 on clay recently — Kaitlin Quevedo the sharper of late.
Fatigue load: Kaitlin Quevedo carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC

Quevedo K.64%

Samson L.36%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Quevedo K. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Quevedo K.

7.5

Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score

Samson L.

6.2

Even matchUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

5.3+27 Clay Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.7Clay Elo 1634

5.7Overall Elo 1713

ELO gap

4.3Overall Elo 1631

7.0Leads 1–0 on clay

H2H

3.0Trails 0–1 on clay

8.89 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

5.55 of last 10 on clay

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast

24°CMainly clear

Wind 6 km/hHumidity 46%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form

Quevedo K.Samson L.

60%1st serve in+5%55%

63%1st serve points won+5%68%

49%2nd serve points won+3%46%

57%Service points won+1%58%

46%Return points won+2%44%

51%Break points saved+4%55%

2.2Aces / match+13.2

2.7Double faults / match+2.45.1

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.