Jesper De Jong vs Marco Cecchinato — Cattolica Quarter-final

Cattolica · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
Jesper De Jong
NED
Jesper De Jong
#83ATP
1651ELO
1647Clay ELO
$261kYTD
$2.0MCAREER
26 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWLWWW
—
Sets
Friday, 12 June 2026 ·
clay
Marco Cecchinato
ITA
Marco Cecchinato
#172ATP
1555ELO
1531Clay ELO
$83kYTD
$5.2MCAREER
33 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWLLWWL

Jesper De Jong faces Marco Cecchinato in the Cattolica quarter-final on clay. Jesper De Jong holds the paper edge — ranked #83, a roughly 120-point clay Elo advantage.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Jesper De Jong carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Jesper De Jong 8 of 10, Marco Cecchinato 6 of 10 on clay recently — Jesper De Jong the sharper of late.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC
De Jong J.73%
Cecchinato M.27%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · De Jong J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
De Jong J.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Cecchinato M.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.4+115 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Clay Elo 1531
6.2Overall Elo 1651
ELO gap
3.8Overall Elo 1555
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
7.98 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.46 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Country comfort
7.5Home country · 11/19 here
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast
23°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 51%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form
De Jong J.Cecchinato M.
58%1st serve in+3%61%
70%1st serve points won+2%72%
48%2nd serve points won+9%57%
60%Service points won+6%66%
40%Return points won+2%38%
58%Break points saved+10%68%
6.5Aces / match+2.44.1
4.1Double faults / match+1.22.9

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw

R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
De Jong J.
Milic O.
6-17-63
Bondioli F.
Caniato C.
7-636-756-4
Guillen Meza A.
Simakin I.
3-67-657-65
Nesterov P.
Cecchinato M.
5-73-6
Lajovic D.
Forejtek J.
6-25-76-4
Pieri S.
Roca Batalla O.
5-73-6
Kasnikowski M.
Dalla Valle E.
5-72-6
Sanchez Jover C.
Dodig M.
6-46-4
Broady L.
Xilas I.
6-33-66-2
Basile P.
Brancaccio R.
6-746-74
Ferrari G.
Callejon Hernando S.
7-666-0
Rehberg M.
Carballes Baena R.
4-64-6
Bueno G.
Forti F.
5-76-46-72
Ribecai M.
Agamenone F.
6-36-753-6
Tobon M.
Vasilev A.
4-62-6
Guerrieri A.
Svrcina D.
6-33-66-4
De Jong J.
Bondioli F.
6-24-66-4
Guillen Meza A.
Cecchinato M.
3-67-644-6
Lajovic D.
Roca Batalla O.
6-745-2
Dalla Valle E.
Sanchez Jover C.
7-646-1
Broady L.
Brancaccio R.
2-64-6
Ferrari G.
Carballes Baena R.
4-64-6
Forti F.
Agamenone F.
6-36-756-1
Vasilev A.
Guerrieri A.
6-755-7
De Jong J.
Cecchinato M.
—
Dalla Valle E.
Brancaccio R.
Carballes Baena R.
Forti F.
Guerrieri A.
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