Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti — Modena Quarter-final
Modena · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
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Sets
Friday, 12 June 2026 ·
clay
Nuria Brancaccio faces Lucia Bronzetti in the Modena quarter-final on clay. Lucia Bronzetti holds the paper edge — ranked #147.
Key context
- Last match: Nuria Brancaccio dropped just 4 games past Tamara Zidansek.
- Last match: Lucia Bronzetti won all two sets in tiebreaks against Julia Grabher.
- Surface form: Nuria Brancaccio 3 of 9, Lucia Bronzetti 7 of 9 on clay recently — Lucia Bronzetti the sharper of late.
- Fatigue load: Lucia Bronzetti carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 23:22 UTCBrancaccio N.39%
Bronzetti L.61%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Slight edge · Bronzetti L. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchForm & Matchup
5.0Clay Elo 1511
Surface ELO5.0+2 Clay Elo edge
4.8Overall Elo 1510
ELO gap5.2Overall Elo 1550
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
4.24 of last 10 on clay
Surface form7.98 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
6.2Home country · 3/8 here
Country comfort7.3Home country · 10/18 here
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Conditions
Weather forecast
28°CMainly clear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 31%
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
Recent form74%1st serve in+13%61%
59%1st serve points won59%
43%2nd serve points won+3%46%
55%Service points won+1%54%
45%Return points won+1%46%
54%Break points saved+5%49%
1.4Aces / match+0.62
3.1Double faults / match+1.12
Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Draw
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
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