Timofey Skatov vs Henrique Rocha — Perugia Semi-final

Perugia · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
KAZ
Timofey Skatov
#175ATP
1535ELO
1524Clay ELO
$62kYTD
$1.0MCAREER
25 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWLLLWW
0 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 6 June 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 2nd on
POR
Henrique Rocha
#121ATP
1621ELO
1603Clay ELO
$119kYTD
$801kCAREER
22 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWLLLL

Henrique Rocha dropped just six games in a straight-sets win over Timofey Skatov in the Perugia semi-final.

Key context

  • Set 2, game 1: Henrique Rocha broke serve.
  • Pressure points: Timofey Skatov converted 1 of 3 break points; Henrique Rocha converted 4 of 7 break points.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:21 UTC
Skatov T.31%
Rocha H.69%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Rocha H. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Skatov T.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Rocha H.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.0Clay Elo 1524
Surface ELO
6.0+79 Clay Elo edge
3.9Overall Elo 1535
ELO gap
6.1Overall Elo 1621
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.56 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.24 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Skatov T.
420
Rocha H.
662

Conditions

Weather
25°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 42%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form
Skatov T.Rocha H.
60%1st serve in+4%64%
69%1st serve points won69%
51%2nd serve points won+1%50%
62%Service points won62%
39%Return points won+3%42%
59%Break points saved+7%52%
3.5Aces / match+1.42.1
3.2Double faults / match+0.33.5

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw

R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Royer V.
Alvarez Varona N.
6-46-3
Cecchinato M.
Simakin I.
6-36-4
Echargui M.
Tseng C.
4-66-13-6
Skatov T.
Gaubas V.
4-66-46-2
Rocha H.
Dalla Valle E.
6-47-67
Bueno G.
Lajovic D.
4-61-6
Nardi L.
Roca Batalla O.
6-47-65
Bertola R.
Ratti L.
6-44-66-2
Llamas Ruiz P.
Ribecai M.
6-43-67-62
Cretu C.
Vasami J.
6-744-6
Broady L.
Jorda Sanchis D.
5-76-36-3
Cadenasso G.
Merida Aguilar D.
2-60-0
Pellegrino A.
Kasnikowski M.
4-67-656-1
Carballes Baena R.
Carboni L.
3-66-16-4
Basile P.
Travaglia S.
7-634-66-3
Forti F.
Sels J.
6-07-64
Royer V.
Cecchinato M.
3-60-3
Tseng C.
Skatov T.
7-626-776-74
Rocha H.
Lajovic D.
6-47-5
Nardi L.
Bertola R.
2-66-43-6
Llamas Ruiz P.
Vasami J.
7-636-3
Broady L.
Merida Aguilar D.
4-62-6
Pellegrino A.
Carballes Baena R.
4-67-56-3
Basile P.
Forti F.
6-16-3
Cecchinato M.
Skatov T.
4-64-6
Rocha H.
Bertola R.
6-24-66-2
Llamas Ruiz P.
Merida Aguilar D.
1-62-6
Pellegrino A.
Basile P.
6-26-3
Skatov T.
Rocha H.
4-62-6
Merida Aguilar D.
Pellegrino A.
6-35-76-3
Rocha H.
Merida Aguilar D.
7-656-3