Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan — Tyler Semi-final

Tyler · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
USAALT
Karl Poling
#505ATP
1184ELO
1199Hard ELO
26 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWWLLW
1 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 6 June 2026 ·
hard
STADIUM COURT 1 · 1st on
USA
Andre Ilagan
#257ATP
1447ELO
1420Hard ELO
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWWW

Andre Ilagan edged the deciding set 7-6 to get past Karl Poling in the Tyler semi-final.

Key context

  • Set 2, game 2: Andre Ilagan broke serve.
  • Comeback: Andre Ilagan recovered from a set deficit to win.
  • Pressure points: Karl Poling converted 4 of 9 break points; Andre Ilagan converted 5 of 11 break points.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC
Poling K.21%
Ilagan A.79%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Ilagan A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Poling K.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Ilagan A.
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
2.2Hard Elo 1198
Surface ELO
7.8+221 Hard Elo edge
1.7Overall Elo 1184
ELO gap
8.3Overall Elo 1446
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.86 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.99 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Poling K.
61681
Ilagan A.
367102

Conditions

Weather
24°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 95%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form
Poling K.Ilagan A.
64%1st serve in+3%67%
68%1st serve points won+1%69%
52%2nd serve points won+3%49%
62%Service points won62%
41%Return points won+1%40%
61%Break points saved+5%66%
2.3Aces / match+2.24.5
3.5Double faults / match+1.12.4

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw

R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Walton A.
Wu T.
4-67-646-1
Martin A.
Ellis B.
7-657-65
L. Ardila
Zink T.
6-46-4
Legout T.
Andrade A.
7-57-5
Draxl L.
Kim A.
6-16-3
Gorzny S.
Fenty A.
6-46-4
Shick B.
Mayo A.
6-22-66-2
Imamura M.
Smith C.
7-56-3
Tomic B.
Matsuoka H.
6-746-75
Searle H.
Krueger M.
6-46-4
Bicknell B.
Monday J.
6-746-46-4
Poling K.
Mejia N.
6-46-4
Butvilas E.
Svajda T.
7-616-4
Sun F.
Ilagan A.
3-66-71
Cassone M.
Milavsky D.
6-46-1
Shimizu Y.
Sweeny D.
7-57-5
Walton A.
Martin A.
6-26-2
L. Ardila
Legout T.
1-60-6
Draxl L.
Gorzny S.
6-31-66-3
Shick B.
Imamura M.
7-57-66
Matsuoka H.
Searle H.
2-62-6
Bicknell B.
Poling K.
5-75-7
Butvilas E.
Ilagan A.
3-64-6
Cassone M.
Shimizu Y.
7-666-766-73
Walton A.
Legout T.
6-26-2
Draxl L.
Shick B.
6-26-3
Searle H.
Poling K.
6-726-33-6
Ilagan A.
Shimizu Y.
4-67-656-4
Walton A.
Draxl L.
6-46-4
Poling K.
Ilagan A.
6-31-66-78
Walton A.
Ilagan A.
7-56-1