Madison Keys vs Yuliia StarodubtsevaParis Semi-final

Paris · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
#23WTA
1987ELO
1894Clay ELO
$1.1MYTD
$24MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Saturday, 16 May 2026 ·
clay
#61WTA
1759ELO
1719Clay ELO
26 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWWLWW
Keys M.
1-6 6-2 6-3
Starodubtseva Y.
Keys M.
1662
Starodubtseva Y.
6231

Madison Keys defeated Yuliia Starodubtseva 1-6 6-2 6-3 in the Paris semi-final on clay. The result followed the form book — Madison Keys came in ranked #23. Madison Keys claimed a first win over Yuliia Starodubtseva in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-30CharlestonSFclayYuliia Starodubtseva6-1 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Keys M.serving53% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Starodubtseva Y.

Starodubtseva Y.serving53% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Keys M.Starodubtseva Y.
Serve
61
Return
42

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
51%
Service points won·Even
60%
59%
Return points won·Even
45%
46%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.0
2.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.8
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
94
75
Break points saved·Slight edge
96
89
Break points won·Slight edge
90
95
Deciding sets·Dominant
97
66
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
96
76

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.3+175 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.7Clay Elo 1719
7.7Overall Elo 1987
ELO gap
2.3Overall Elo 1759
0.0
H2H
10.0
8.1
Surface form
7.4
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.0
3-set count
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0
5.0
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
84
97

Keys M.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d) · Starodubtseva Y.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About