Hailey Baptiste vs Aryna Sabalenka — Madrid Quarter-final

Madrid · WTA · Quarter-final
Hailey Baptiste
USA30
Hailey Baptiste
#30WTA
1844ELO
1771Clay ELO
$1.1MYTD
$3.6MCAREER
24 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Tuesday, 21 April 2026
clay
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR1
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
2103Clay ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Baptiste H.
2-6 6-2 7-6
Sabalenka A.
Baptiste H.
26782
Sabalenka A.
62661

Hailey Baptiste defeated Aryna Sabalenka 2-6 6-2 7-6 in the Madrid quarter-final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending the title. Hailey Baptiste claimed a first win over Aryna Sabalenka in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-17MiamiQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Baptiste H.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Sabalenka A.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Baptiste H.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Baptiste H.Sabalenka A.
82
Serve
—
0
Return
—

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Baptiste H.Sabalenka A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
75%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
51%
57%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
69%
Return points won·Even
42%
44%
Break points saved·Clear edge
58%
72%
Aces / match·Even
5.5
5.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.8
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Baptiste H.Sabalenka A.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
83
98
Break points saved·Slight edge
93
98
Break points won·Clear edge
79
100
Deciding sets·Slight edge
88
97
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
87
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Baptiste H.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Sabalenka A.
7.9
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 35 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
0.5Clay Elo 1771
Surface ELO
9.5+333 Clay Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1844
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 2220
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.1
Surface form
8.9
0.0
Win streak
10.015-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.3
Minutes 14d
4.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
Country comfort
7.1
Surface transition
6.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Baptiste H.Sabalenka A.
Freshness·
—
81

Sabalenka A.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 34%

Draw

Final
Kostyuk M.[26]
Andreeva M.[9]
6-37-5
Semi-finals
Andreeva M.[9]
Baptiste H.[30]
6-47-68
Kostyuk M.[26]
Potapova A.
6-21-66-1
Quarter-finals
Kostyuk M.[26]
Noskova L.[13]
7-616-0
Potapova A.
Pliskova K.
6-16-746-3
Baptiste H.[30]
Sabalenka A.[1]
2-66-27-66
Andreeva M.[9]
Fernandez L.[24]
7-616-3
R16
Sabalenka A.[1]
Osaka N.[14]
6-716-36-2
Noskova L.[13]
Gauff C.[3]
6-41-67-65
Andreeva M.[9]
Bondar A.
6-756-37-65
Kostyuk M.[26]
Mcnally C.
6-26-3
Baptiste H.[30]
Bencic B.[11]
6-16-7146-3
Fernandez L.[24]
Li A.[31]
6-36-2
Pliskova K.
Sierra S.
6-46-3
Potapova A.
Rybakina E.[2]
7-686-4
R32
Noskova L.[13]
Samsonova L.[20]
W/O
Li A.[31]
Swiatek I.[4]
7-642-63-0
Pliskova K.
Mertens E.[19]
7-52-67-63
Andreeva M.[9]
Galfi D.
6-36-2
Bondar A.
Samson L.
7-636-1
Mcnally C.
Siniakova K.
6-32-67-62
Sierra S.
Sonmez Z.
0-66-26-3
Kostyuk M.[26]
Pegula J.[5]
6-16-4
Rybakina E.[2]
Zheng Q.[32]
4-66-46-3
Bencic B.[11]
Shnaider D.[18]
6-27-66
Gauff C.[3]
Cirstea S.[25]
4-67-56-1
Baptiste H.[30]
Paolini J.[8]
7-56-3
Potapova A.
Ostapenko J.[21]
4-66-46-4
Fernandez L.[24]
Jovic I.[15]
3-66-36-2
Osaka N.[14]
Kalinina A.
6-16-3
Sabalenka A.[1]
Cristian J.[29]
6-16-4
R64
Fernandez L.[24]
Grabher J.
6-26-3
Paolini J.[8]
Siegemund L.
3-66-26-4
Pliskova K.
Sakkari M.[33]
6-47-66
Osaka N.[14]
Osorio C.
6-27-5
Cirstea S.[25]
Grant T.
6-27-65
Baptiste H.[30]
Quevedo K.
6-16-4
Samsonova L.[20]
Tjen J.
6-26-1
Kostyuk M.[26]
Putintseva Y.
6-16-3
Sierra S.
Frech M.[34]
6-26-4
Bencic B.[11]
Marcinko P.
6-46-2
Rybakina E.[2]
Ruse E.
4-66-37-5
Kalinina A.
Bouzkova M.[23]
6-46-3
Pegula J.[5]
Boulter K.
6-46-4
Galfi D.
Kalinskaya A.[22]
6-36-3
Zheng Q.[32]
Kenin S.
1-66-36-3
Gauff C.[3]
Jeanjean L.
6-36-0
Sonmez Z.
Bucsa C.[27]
6-16-746-2
Noskova L.[13]
Arango E.
6-36-2
Jovic I.[15]
Linette M.
6-46-1
Mcnally C.
Mboko V.[10]
6-46-1
Shnaider D.[18]
Bouzas Maneiro J.
3-67-56-1
Samson L.
Wang X.[28]
2-66-36-0
Ostapenko J.[21]
Waltert S.
6-27-5
Potapova A.
Zhang S.
6-36-1
Swiatek I.[4]
Snigur D.
6-16-2
Li A.[31]
Parks A.
6-26-756-3
Sabalenka A.[1]
Stearns P.
7-56-3
Mertens E.[19]
Eala A.
6-26-1
Cristian J.[29]
Starodubtseva Y.
3-67-656-4
Andreeva M.[9]
Udvardy P.
7-56-2
Bondar A.
Svitolina E.[7]
6-36-4
Siniakova K.
Blinkova A.
6-26-2
R128
Sierra S.
Yastremska D.
7-6107-68
Sonmez Z.
Martinez Cirez C.
7-56-2
Pliskova K.
Kraus S.
2-66-16-4
Zhang S.
Lys E.
6-46-3
Putintseva Y.
Valentova T.
6-44-66-3
Stearns P.
Boisson L.
6-16-3
Siniakova K.
Kalieva E.
6-36-4
Bondar A.
Golubic V.
6-26-3
Eala A.
Pavlyuchenkova A.
6-36-3
Siegemund L.
Begu I.
6-46-0
Marcinko P.
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
6-07-5
Grabher J.
Badosa P.
7-634-66-0
Ruse E.
Ruzic A.
6-34-66-0
Kalinina A.
Rakhimova K.
6-25-76-2
Jeanjean L.
Selekhmeteva O.
6-46-1
Kenin S.
Krueger A.
7-626-4
Samson L.
Maria T.
6-46-2
Boulter K.
Townsend T.
6-46-2
Galfi D.
Tomljanovic A.
7-676-4
Arango E.
Gibson T.
6-36-2
Linette M.
Montgomery R.
6-46-3
Quevedo K.
Williams V.
6-26-4
Osorio C.
Zakharova A.
6-06-3
Starodubtseva Y.
Uchijima M.
6-31-66-3
Snigur D.
Kasatkina D.
6-33-67-613
Waltert S.
Oliynykova O.
7-56-0
Udvardy P.
Birrell K.
6-41-66-1
Parks A.
Cocciaretto E.
6-36-2
Mcnally C.
Volynets K.
6-16-2
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Haddad Maia B.
6-16-1
Tjen J.
Charaeva A.
6-46-2
Grant T.
Jacquemot E.
6-16-2