Alexandre Muller vs Matteo ArnaldiMonte Carlo Masters Qualifying Round 2

Monte Carlo Masters · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Round 2
#126ATP
1665ELO
1628Clay ELO
$426kYTD
$4.3MCAREER
29 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLLLLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 5 April 2026
clay
#35ATP
1830ELO
1830Clay ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
Muller A.
6-1 6-7 6-4
Arnaldi M.
Muller A.
66462
Arnaldi M.
17741

Alexandre Muller defeated Matteo Arnaldi 6-1 6-7 6-4 in the Monte Carlo Masters qualifying round 2 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Matteo Arnaldi came in ranked #35. Alexandre Muller extended the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Alexandre Muller came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 6–1 6–7 6–4.

Head to head

21
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-05Monte Carlo MastersQ2clayAlexandre Muller6-1 6-7(4) 6-4
2024-07-22UmagR32clayAlexandre Muller7-6(8) 6-4
2024-05-27Roland GarrosR64clayMatteo Arnaldi6-4 6-1 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Muller A.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Arnaldi M.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Muller A.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
67%
55%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
49%
Service points won·Even
61%
58%
Return points won·Even
36%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
58%
Aces / match·Even
3.1
3.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.8
4.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
75
78
Break points saved·Even
94
97
Break points won·Slight edge
44
51
Deciding sets·Slight edge
95
86
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
84
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.4Clay Elo 1628
Surface ELO
5.6+202 Clay Elo edge
4.7Overall Elo 1665
ELO gap
5.3Overall Elo 1830
5.4
H2H
4.6
6.2
Surface form
4.6
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
4.5
Minutes 14d
9.3
4.0
3-set count
9.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
98
94

Muller A.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Arnaldi M.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast