Matej Dodig vs Nicolai Budkov KjaerLugano CH Quarter-final

Lugano CH · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#208ATP
1461ELO
1407Hard ELO
20 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWLLLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 23 February 2026
hard
#121ATP
1620ELO
1598Hard ELO
$293kYTD
$747kCAREER
19 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLLWL
Dodig M.
7-6 7-5
Budkov Kjaer N.
Dodig M.
7772
Budkov Kjaer N.
6450

Matej Dodig defeated Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 7-6 7-5 in the Lugano CH quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Nicolai Budkov Kjaer came in ranked #121, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Matej Dodig claimed a first win over Nicolai Budkov Kjaer in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-24WimbledonSFgrassNicolai Budkov Kjaer6-2 7.7-6.4

Serve vs return

This season
Dodig M.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Budkov Kjaer N.

Budkov Kjaer N.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Dodig M.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Even
63%
63%
Return points won·Even
36%
38%
Break points saved·Even
57%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.8
4.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.2
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
31
67
Break points saved·Even
76
78
Break points won·Dominant
3
39
Deciding sets·Dominant
40
96
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
65
81

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.4Hard Elo 1407
Surface ELO
7.6+191 Hard Elo edge
2.5Overall Elo 1461
ELO gap
7.5Overall Elo 1620
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.3
Surface form
4.1
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 5
Fatigue & Travel
6.2
Minutes 14d
9.3
8.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
67
100

Dodig M.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 70 games (7d) · Budkov Kjaer N.: 16 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast