Pablo Carreno Busta vs Luca NardiDubai Qualifying Round 2

Dubai · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Round 2
#65ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 23 February 2026
hard
#160ATP
1585ELO
1572Hard ELO
$213kYTD
$2.4MCAREER
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLLWL
Carreno Busta P.
6-7 6-4 7-6
Nardi L.
Carreno Busta P.
646772
Nardi L.
774651

Pablo Carreno Busta defeated Luca Nardi 6-7 6-4 7-6 in the Dubai qualifying round 2 on hard. The result followed the form book — Pablo Carreno Busta came in ranked #65, leading the head-to-head 2–0. Pablo Carreno Busta extended the head-to-head to 3–0.

Key context

Head to head

20
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-23DubaiQ2hardPablo Carreno Busta6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(5)
2022-07-18HamburgR32clayPablo Carreno Busta6-2 6-1

Serve vs return

This season
Carreno Busta P.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Nardi L.

Nardi L.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Carreno Busta P.Nardi L.
21
Serve
44
Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
52%
Service points won·Even
63%
62%
Return points won·Even
40%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
53%
63%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.6
4.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.4
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
78
32
Break points saved·Slight edge
97
92
Break points won·Dominant
61
15
Deciding sets·Dominant
80
42
Tiebreaks·Dominant
95
18

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.7+172 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.3Hard Elo 1572
6.7Overall Elo 1801
ELO gap
3.3Overall Elo 1585
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.8
Surface form
6.4
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
5.7
Minutes 14d
7.8
0.0
3-set count
4.0
8.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
92
88

Carreno Busta P.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Nardi L.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast