Sebastian Baez vs Alejandro TabiloSantiago Quarter-final

Santiago · ATP · Quarter-final
#57ATP
1759ELO
1718Clay ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 23 February 2026
clay
#33ATP
1819ELO
1781Clay ELO
$1.1MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
29 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWLWWL
Baez S.
7-6 6-1
Tabilo A.
Baez S.
7762
Tabilo A.
6210

Sebastian Baez defeated Alejandro Tabilo 7-6 6-1 in the Santiago quarter-final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Alejandro Tabilo came in ranked #33, defending last year's round of 16, but Sebastian Baez had been the form player, winning 7 of their last 7 on clay. Sebastian Baez extended the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Sebastian Baez came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 7–6 6–1.

Head to head

21
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-02-26SantiagoFclaySebastian Baez3-6 6-0 6-4
2022-01-31CordobaQFclayAlejandro Tabilo6-1 7-6(4)
2021-03-01Buenos AiresQ1claySebastian Baez6-1 6-0

Serve vs return

This season
Baez S.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Tabilo A.

Tabilo A.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Baez S.

Serve advantage — Tabilo A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Baez S.Tabilo A.
1
Serve
83
44
Return
33

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
72%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
65%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
53%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
67%
Return points won·Even
41%
38%
Break points saved·Even
62%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.9
5.5
Double faults / match·Even
1.8
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 38). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
87
74
Break points saved·Even
96
97
Break points won·Dominant
86
59
Deciding sets·Even
88
91
Tiebreaks·Dominant
83
56

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.8Clay Elo 1718
Surface ELO
6.2+64 Clay Elo edge
3.7Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1819
10.0
H2H
0.0
3.2
Surface form
7.8
0.0
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
6.2
Minutes 14d
0.0
3-set count
0.0
8.0
Prev. match
6.0
6.8
Country comfort
Context
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
94
96

Baez S.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Tabilo A.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 36%