Sebastian Baez vs Alejandro TabiloSantiago Final

Santiago · ATP · Final
#56ATP
1759ELO
1718Clay ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 26 February 2024
clay
#31ATP
1819ELO
1781Clay ELO
$1.1MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
29 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWLWWL
Baez S.
3-6 6-0 6-4
Tabilo A.
Baez S.
3662
Tabilo A.
6041

Sebastian Baez defeated Alejandro Tabilo 3-6 6-0 6-4 in the Santiago final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Alejandro Tabilo came in ranked #31, defending last year's round of 32, but Sebastian Baez had been the form player, winning 7 of their last 7 on clay. Sebastian Baez extended the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

Head to head

21
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-23SantiagoQFclaySebastian Baez7-6(2) 6-1
2022-01-31CordobaQFclayAlejandro Tabilo6-1 7-6(4)
2021-03-01Buenos AiresQ1claySebastian Baez6-1 6-0

Serve vs return

This season
Baez S.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Tabilo A.

Tabilo A.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Baez S.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Baez S.Tabilo A.
1
Serve
83
44
Return
33

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
72%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
64%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
60%
66%
Return points won·Even
40%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.9
6.9
Double faults / match·Even
1.8
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (138 vs 152). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
87
74
Break points saved·Even
96
97
Break points won·Dominant
86
59
Deciding sets·Even
88
91
Tiebreaks·Dominant
83
56

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
7.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.8Clay Elo 1718
Surface ELO
6.2+64 Clay Elo edge
3.7Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1819
4.6
H2H
5.4
7.3
Surface form
7.8
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.4
Minutes 14d
8.2
3-set count
7.0
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
8.5
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
96
97

Baez S.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Tabilo A.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
25°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 39%