Roberto Carballes Baena vs Pablo Carreno BustaRotterdam Qualifying Round 1

Rotterdam · ATP · Qualifying Round 1
#163ATP
1632ELO
1592Hard ELO
$188kYTD
$6.3MCAREER
33 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 9 February 2026
hard
#71ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
34 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Carballes Baena R.
6-4 3-6 6-1
Carreno Busta P.
Carballes Baena R.
6362
Carreno Busta P.
4611

Roberto Carballes Baena defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 6-4 3-6 6-1 in the Rotterdam qualifying round 1 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Pablo Carreno Busta came in ranked #71. Roberto Carballes Baena extended the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-06-24MallorcaR32grassRoberto Carballes Baena7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(3)
2016-02-22Sao PauloQFclayPablo Carreno Busta6-0 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Carballes Baena R.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Carballes Baena R.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Carballes Baena R.Carreno Busta P.
Serve
21
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Even
63%
63%
Return points won·Even
39%
40%
Break points saved·Even
56%
53%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.3
2.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.5
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
61
78
Break points saved·Even
93
97
Break points won·Even
58
61
Deciding sets·Clear edge
64
80
Tiebreaks·Dominant
51
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.3Hard Elo 1592
Surface ELO
6.7+152 Hard Elo edge
3.3Overall Elo 1632
ELO gap
6.7Overall Elo 1801
5.0
H2H
5.0
3.2
Surface form
4.2
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.1
Minutes 14d
8.1
3-set count
7.0
8.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
100
89

Carballes Baena R.: 17 days rest · Carreno Busta P.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
3°COvercast
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 97%