Luca Nardi vs Flavio CobolliMontpellier Round of 16

Montpellier · ATP · Round of 16
#166ATP
1585ELO
1572Hard ELO
$213kYTD
$2.4MCAREER
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 2 February 2026
hard
#10ATP
1896ELO
1810Hard ELO
$3.1MYTD
$8.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWWW
Nardi L.
6-2 6-3
Cobolli F.
Nardi L.
662
Cobolli F.
230

Luca Nardi defeated Flavio Cobolli 6-2 6-3 in the Montpellier round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Flavio Cobolli came in ranked #10, defending last year's round of 16. Luca Nardi extended the head-to-head to 4–1.

Key context

Head to head

31
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-07Rome MastersR128clayLuca Nardi6-3 6-4
2025-01-06AucklandR32hardLuca Nardi6-2 1-1 RET
2023-11-27NextGen FinalsRRhardLuca Nardi3-4(4) 4-2 4-3(1) 1-4 4-3(3)
2023-07-24UmagQ1clayFlavio Cobolli6-1 7-5

Serve vs return

This season
Nardi L.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Cobolli F.

Cobolli F.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Nardi L.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Nardi L.Cobolli F.
Serve
20
Return
35

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
55%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Even
61%
64%
Return points won·Even
39%
36%
Break points saved·Even
63%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.1
6.2
Double faults / match·Even
2.9
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
33
76
Break points saved·Even
92
96
Break points won·Clear edge
15
35
Deciding sets·Dominant
42
98
Tiebreaks·Dominant
20
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.3Hard Elo 1572
Surface ELO
7.7+238 Hard Elo edge
1.7Overall Elo 1585
ELO gap
8.3Overall Elo 1896
10.0
H2H
0.0
8.1
Surface form
5.6
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
3.0
Minutes 14d
8.7
0.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0
Opponent rise
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
100
56

Nardi L.: 17 days rest · Cobolli F.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 111 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
13°CDrizzle
Wind 24 km/hHumidity 82%