Mackenzie Mcdonald vs Roberto Carballes BaenaQuimper CH Round of 16

Quimper CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#145ATP
1606ELO
1604Hard ELO
$240kYTD
$7.2MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWLLW
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 27 January 2026
hard
#163ATP
1632ELO
1592Hard ELO
$188kYTD
$6.3MCAREER
33 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWWW
Mcdonald M.
6-4 6-4
Carballes Baena R.
Mcdonald M.
662
Carballes Baena R.
440

Mackenzie Mcdonald defeated Roberto Carballes Baena 6-4 6-4 in the Quimper CH round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Mackenzie Mcdonald came in ranked #145, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 16. Mackenzie Mcdonald extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

  • Match story: Mackenzie Mcdonald edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-24WimbledonSFgrassMackenzie Mcdonald6-4 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Mcdonald M.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Carballes Baena R.

Carballes Baena R.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Mcdonald M.

Serve advantage — Carballes Baena R.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Mcdonald M.Carballes Baena R.
25
Serve
10
Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
64%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
52%
Service points won·Even
61%
63%
Return points won·Even
36%
40%
Break points saved·Even
58%
56%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.4
4.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
56
61
Break points saved·Even
96
93
Break points won·Slight edge
66
58
Deciding sets·Clear edge
45
64
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
44
51

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.4+12 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Hard Elo 1592
5.2Overall Elo 1606
ELO gap
4.8Overall Elo 1632
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.9
Surface form
4.6
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
5.0
Minutes 14d
7.1
0.0
3-set count
7.0
7.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
89
100

Mcdonald M.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d) · Carballes Baena R.: 18 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast