Aryna Sabalenka vs Anastasia Potapova — Australian Open Round of 32

Australian Open · WTA · Round of 32
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR1
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 19 January 2026
hard
Anastasia Potapova
RUS
Anastasia Potapova
#27WTA
1904ELO
1804Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$6.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWWWLW
Sabalenka A.
7-6 7-6
Potapova A.
Sabalenka A.
77792
Potapova A.
64670

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Anastasia Potapova 7-6 7-6 in the Australian Open round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 2–0, defending last year's final. Aryna Sabalenka extended the head-to-head to 3–0.

Key context

Head to head

2–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-06RomeR64clayAryna Sabalenka6-2 6-2
2023-04-17StuttgartSFclayAryna Sabalenka6-1 6-2
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving87% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Potapova A.

Potapova A.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Sabalenka A.Potapova A.
96
Serve
11
39
Return
52

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Sabalenka A.Potapova A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
66%
2nd serve points won·Clear edge
56%
44%
Service points won·Slight edge
68%
57%
Return points won·Even
44%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
69%
61%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.2
3.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.0
4.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Sabalenka A.Potapova A.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
98
81
Break points saved·Slight edge
98
89
Break points won·Clear edge
100
88
Deciding sets·Even
97
96
Tiebreaks·Dominant
100
57

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sabalenka A.
9.2
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Potapova A.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
10.0+397 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.0Hard Elo 1804
9.8Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
0.2Overall Elo 1904
5.0
H2H
5.0
9.3
Surface form
4.8
9.06-match win streak
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
9.1
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
7.0
Country comfort
4.7
Context
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Sabalenka A.Potapova A.
Freshness·Slight edge
90
99

Sabalenka A.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d) · Potapova A.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
31°CPartly cloudy
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 28%

Draw

Final
Rybakina E.[5]
Sabalenka A.[1]
6-44-66-4
Semi-finals
Sabalenka A.[1]
Svitolina E.[12]
6-26-3
Rybakina E.[5]
Pegula J.[6]
6-37-67
Quarter-finals
Svitolina E.[12]
Gauff C.[3]
6-16-2
Pegula J.[6]
Anisimova A.[4]
6-27-61
Rybakina E.[5]
Swiatek I.[2]
7-56-1
Sabalenka A.[1]
Jovic I.[29]
6-36-0
R16
Gauff C.[3]
Muchova K.[19]
6-13-66-3
Anisimova A.[4]
Wang X.
7-646-4
Swiatek I.[2]
Inglis M.
6-06-3
Sabalenka A.[1]
Mboko V.[17]
6-17-61
Svitolina E.[12]
Andreeva M.[8]
6-26-4
Pegula J.[6]
Keys M.[9]
6-36-4
Rybakina E.[5]
Mertens E.[21]
6-16-3
Jovic I.[29]
Putintseva Y.
6-06-1
R32
Gauff C.[3]
Baptiste H.
3-66-06-3
Inglis M.
Osaka N.[16]
W/O
Sabalenka A.[1]
Potapova A.
7-647-67
Rybakina E.[5]
Valentova T.
6-26-3
Wang X.
Noskova L.[13]
7-56-4
Putintseva Y.
Sonmez Z.
6-36-736-3
Andreeva M.[8]
Ruse E.
6-36-4
Muchova K.[19]
Linette M.
6-16-1
Jovic I.[29]
Paolini J.[7]
6-27-63
Mboko V.[17]
Tauson C.[14]
7-655-76-3
Anisimova A.[4]
Stearns P.
6-16-4
Pegula J.[6]
Selekhmeteva O.
6-36-2
Mertens E.[21]
Bartunkova N.
6-06-4
Keys M.[9]
Pliskova K.
6-36-3
Swiatek I.[2]
Kalinskaya A.[31]
6-11-66-1
Svitolina E.[12]
Shnaider D.[23]
7-646-3
R64
Muchova K.[19]
Parks A.
4-66-46-4
Mboko V.[17]
Mcnally C.
6-46-3
Kalinskaya A.[31]
Grabher J.
6-36-3
Linette M.
Li A.
6-36-3
Bartunkova N.
Bencic B.[10]
6-30-66-4
Andreeva M.[8]
Sakkari M.
6-06-4
Stearns P.
Marcinko P.
6-27-5
Tauson C.[14]
Kudermetova P.
6-33-67-5
Jovic I.[29]
Hon P.
6-16-2
Gauff C.[3]
Danilovic O.
6-26-2
Swiatek I.[2]
Bouzkova M.
6-26-3
Osaka N.[16]
Cirstea S.
6-34-66-2
Ruse E.
Tomljanovic A.
6-46-4
Noskova L.[13]
Preston T.
6-24-66-2
Sabalenka A.[1]
Bai Z.
6-36-1
Pegula J.[6]
Kessler M.
6-06-2
Shnaider D.[23]
Gibson T.
3-67-56-3
Valentova T.
Fruhvirtova L.
7-52-66-3
Sonmez Z.
Bondar A.
6-26-4
Svitolina E.[12]
Klimovicova L.
7-56-1
Inglis M.
Siegemund L.
6-46-737-67
Mertens E.[21]
Uchijima M.
6-36-1
Anisimova A.[4]
Siniakova K.
6-16-4
Potapova A.
Raducanu E.[28]
7-636-2
Keys M.[9]
Krueger A.
6-17-5
Paolini J.[7]
Frech M.
6-26-3
Wang X.
Ostapenko J.[24]
4-66-46-4
Rybakina E.[5]
Gracheva V.
7-56-2
Pliskova K.
Tjen J.
6-46-4
Baptiste H.
Hunter S.
6-26-1
Putintseva Y.
Jacquemot E.
6-16-2
Selekhmeteva O.
Badosa P.[25]
6-46-4
R128
Siegemund L.
Samsonova L.[18]
0-67-56-4
Hon P.
Stakusic M.
1-66-45-3
Klimovicova L.
Jones F.
6-23-2
Fruhvirtova L.
Sun L.
6-37-5
Jovic I.[29]
Volynets K.
6-26-3
Jacquemot E.
Kostyuk M.[20]
6-747-647-67
Gracheva V.
Golubic V.
6-12-66-1
Gibson T.
Blinkova A.
6-16-3
Frech M.
Erjavec V.
6-16-1
Kudermetova P.
Maristany Zuleta De Reales G.
6-26-3
Bencic B.[10]
Boulter K.
6-07-5
Muchova K.[19]
Cristian J.
6-37-66
Badosa P.[25]
Diyas Z.
6-26-4
Danilovic O.
Williams V.
6-756-36-4
Pliskova K.
Stephens S.
7-676-2
Andreeva M.[8]
Vekic D.
4-66-36-0
Keys M.[9]
Oliynykova O.
7-666-1
Mcnally C.
Sakatsume H.
6-36-1
Noskova L.[13]
Semenistaja D.
6-36-0
Anisimova A.[4]
Waltert S.
6-36-2
Selekhmeteva O.
Seidel E.
6-33-66-0
Swiatek I.[2]
Yuan Y.
7-656-3
Parks A.
Eala A.
0-66-36-2
Ostapenko J.[24]
Sramkova R.
6-46-4
Rybakina E.[5]
Juvan K.
6-46-3
Sonmez Z.
Alexandrova E.[11]
7-54-66-4
Mboko V.[17]
Jones E.
6-46-1
Potapova A.
Lamens S.
3-67-56-2
Inglis M.
Birrell K.
7-666-796-4
Bondar A.
Mandlik E.
6-06-4
Uchijima M.
Sierra S.
6-36-1
Valentova T.
Joint M.[30]
6-46-4
Tomljanovic A.
Starodubtseva Y.
4-67-636-1
Hunter S.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-46-4
Bouzkova M.
Zarazua R.
6-27-5
Gauff C.[3]
Rakhimova K.
6-26-3
Wang X.
Kalinina A.
6-36-3
Putintseva Y.
Haddad Maia B.
3-67-56-3
Tjen J.
Fernandez L.[22]
6-27-61
Sabalenka A.[1]
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
6-46-1
Mertens E.[21]
Tararudee L.
7-56-1
Ruse E.
Yastremska D.[26]
6-47-5
Tauson C.[14]
Galfi D.
6-36-3
Li A.
Osorio C.
6-46-757-5
Bai Z.
Pavlyuchenkova A.
6-42-67-610
Sakkari M.
Jeanjean L.
6-46-2
Pegula J.[6]
Zakharova A.
6-26-1
Grabher J.
Cocciaretto E.
7-52-66-4
Baptiste H.
Townsend T.
6-36-736-3
Shnaider D.[23]
Krejcikova B.
2-66-36-3
Stearns P.
Kenin S.[27]
6-36-2
Kalinskaya A.[31]
Kartal S.
7-636-1
Preston T.
Zhang S.
6-32-66-3
Krueger A.
Bejlek S.
6-36-3
Marcinko P.
Maria T.
6-37-5
Svitolina E.[12]
Bucsa C.
6-46-1
Osaka N.[16]
Ruzic A.
6-33-66-4
Linette M.
Navarro E.[15]
3-66-36-3
Kessler M.
Arango E.
6-36-2
Siniakova K.
Udvardy P.
6-16-2
Raducanu E.[28]
Sawangkaew M.
6-46-1
Cirstea S.
Lys E.
3-66-46-3
Bartunkova N.
Kasatkina D.
7-670-66-3
Paolini J.[7]
Sasnovich A.
6-16-2