Tommy Paul vs Reilly Opelka — Adelaide Round of 16

Adelaide · ATP · Round of 16

USA2

Tommy Paul

#24ATP

1949ELO

1881Hard ELO

$1.7MYTD

$15MCAREER

29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LWWLWWWWLW

2 — 0

Sets

Monday, 12 January 2026

hard

USA

Reilly Opelka

#131ATP

1749ELO

1734Hard ELO

$325kYTD

$6.0MCAREER

28 yrs · 211 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LLLLWWLWLW

Paul T.

6-4 6-4

Opelka R.

Paul T.

662

Opelka R.

440

Tommy Paul defeated Reilly Opelka 6-4 6-4 in the Adelaide round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Tommy Paul came in ranked #24, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's semi-final. Tommy Paul extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

Match story: Tommy Paul edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

1–0

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2025-02-03	Dallas	QF	hard	Tommy Paul	7-6(3) 6-2

View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season

Paul T.serving98% hold

wins 79% of points on serve vs Opelka R.

Opelka R.serving95% hold

wins 75% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Paul T.Opelka R.

Serve

Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season

Paul T.Opelka R.

1st serve in·Slight edge

63%

72%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

76%

81%

2nd serve points won·Even

56%

58%

Service points won·Slight edge

69%

75%

Return points won·Slight edge

37%

27%

Break points saved·Clear edge

62%

81%

Aces / match·Dominant

7.0

21.9

Double faults / match·Dominant

1.4

4.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure

Paul T.Opelka R.

Clutch Rating·Dominant

Break points saved·Even

100

Break points won·Dominant

Deciding sets·Slight edge

Tiebreaks·Even

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Paul T.

7.4

Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score

Opelka R.

5.5

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

6.6+147 Hard Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.4Hard Elo 1734

7.0Overall Elo 1949

ELO gap

3.0Overall Elo 1749

10.0

H2H

0.0

4.7

Surface form

4.4

0.0

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

8.7

Minutes 14d

7.7

7.0

3-set count

7.0

Prev. match

7.0

6.1

Country comfort

5.2

Context

8.5

Defending pts

5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.