Tommy Paul vs Reilly Opelka — Dallas Quarter-final

Dallas · ATP · Quarter-final
Tommy Paul
USA3
Tommy Paul
#25ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 3 February 2025
hard
Reilly Opelka
USA
Reilly Opelka
#115ATP
1749ELO
1734Hard ELO
$325kYTD
$6.0MCAREER
28 yrs · 211 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWLWLW
Paul T.
7-6 6-2
Opelka R.
Paul T.
7762
Opelka R.
6320

Tommy Paul defeated Reilly Opelka 7-6 6-2 in the Dallas quarter-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Tommy Paul came in ranked #25, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending the title. Tommy Paul extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

  • Match story: Tommy Paul closed it out in two sets, 7–6 6–2.

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-12AdelaideR16hardTommy Paul6-4 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Paul T.serving96% hold

wins 77% of points on serve vs Opelka R.

Opelka R.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Paul T.Opelka R.
71
Serve
86
54
Return
0

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Paul T.Opelka R.
1st serve in·Even
61%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
79%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
52%
Service points won·Even
66%
69%
Return points won·Slight edge
39%
28%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
74%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.4
17.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.0
4.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (66 vs 67). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Paul T.Opelka R.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
93
63
Break points saved·Even
99
100
Break points won·Dominant
87
1
Deciding sets·Slight edge
98
88
Tiebreaks·Even
96
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Paul T.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Opelka R.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.6+147 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.4Hard Elo 1734
7.0Overall Elo 1949
ELO gap
3.0Overall Elo 1749
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.7
Surface form
6.2
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.0
Prev. match
4.0
Context
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Paul T.Opelka R.
Freshness·
86
—

Paul T.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Final
Shapovalov D.
Ruud C.[2]
7-656-3
Semi-finals
Ruud C.[2]
Munar J.
6-22-67-64
Shapovalov D.
Paul T.[3]
7-56-3
Quarter-finals
Ruud C.[2]
Nishioka Y.
7-53-2
Shapovalov D.
Machac T.[6]
7-656-0
Paul T.[3]
Opelka R.
7-636-2
Munar J.
Arnaldi M.[8]
6-43-66-3
R16
Shapovalov D.
Fritz T.[1]
2-66-37-62
Ruud C.[2]
Mmoh M.
6-16-4
Machac T.[6]
Hijikata R.
6-47-60
Paul T.[3]
Quinn E.
6-45-76-4
Opelka R.
Norrie C.
4-67-656-4
Arnaldi M.[8]
Davidovich Fokina A.
6-16-3
Munar J.
Shelton B.[4]
6-27-63
Nishioka Y.
Tiafoe F.[5]
3-66-46-3
R32
Fritz T.[1]
Rinderknech A.
6-46-2
Opelka R.
Shevchenko A.
7-636-4
Shapovalov D.
Kecmanovic M.
6-36-756-3
Machac T.[6]
Nishikori K.
6-26-2
Paul T.[3]
Brooksby J.
6-766-36-4
Nishioka Y.
Nakashima B.
6-47-66
Ruud C.[2]
Duckworth J.
7-54-66-2
Hijikata R.
Mannarino A.
7-56-3
Tiafoe F.[5]
Daniel T.
6-13-66-4
Mmoh M.
Carballes Baena R.
6-13-66-4
Davidovich Fokina A.
Holt B.
6-17-5
Shelton B.[4]
Vukic A.
6-36-3
Quinn E.
Svajda T.
6-46-2
Munar J.
Yunchaokete B.
7-56-2
Arnaldi M.[8]
Eubanks C.
6-36-4
Norrie C.
Michelsen A.[7]
2-67-616-1