Tomas Machac vs Ugo HumbertAdelaide Final

Adelaide · ATP · Final
#49ATP
1866ELO
1829Hard ELO
$832kYTD
$6.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 12 January 2026
hard
#30ATP
1868ELO
1843Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$12MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWLWWW
Machac T.
6-4 6-7 6-2
Humbert U.
Machac T.
66262
Humbert U.
47721

Tomas Machac defeated Ugo Humbert 6-4 6-7 6-2 in the Adelaide final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Ugo Humbert came in ranked #30, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Tomas Machac claimed a first win over Ugo Humbert in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Tomas Machac closed it out in three sets, 6–4 6–7 6–2.

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-09-25TokyoSFhardUgo Humbert6-3 3-6 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Machac T.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Humbert U.

Humbert U.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Machac T.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Machac T.Humbert U.
30
Serve
64
25
Return
15

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
55%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
68%
Return points won·Even
37%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
69%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.3
7.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.7
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
90
70
Break points saved·Even
98
99
Break points won·Dominant
80
37
Deciding sets·Clear edge
94
78
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
97
91

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.8Hard Elo 1829
Surface ELO
5.2+14 Hard Elo edge
4.9Overall Elo 1866
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1868
0.0
H2H
10.0
1.7
Surface form
6.2
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
8.6
Minutes 14d
8.4
7.0
3-set count
7.0
7.0
Prev. match
6.0
5.4
Country comfort
5.1
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
87

Humbert U.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°CClear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 32%