Kimberly Birrell vs Anastasia PotapovaAdelaide Round of 32

Adelaide · WTA · Round of 32
#72WTA
1754ELO
1752Hard ELO
28 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 12 January 2026
hard
#28WTA
1904ELO
1804Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$6.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWWWLW
Birrell K.
6-4 6-4
Potapova A.
Birrell K.
662
Potapova A.
440

Kimberly Birrell defeated Anastasia Potapova 6-4 6-4 in the Adelaide round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Anastasia Potapova came in ranked #28. Kimberly Birrell extended the head-to-head to 3–0.

Key context

  • Match story: Kimberly Birrell edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

20
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-03-18MiamiR128hardKimberly Birrell3-6 6-3 7-6(5)
2024-12-30BrisbaneR16hardKimberly Birrell7-6(2) 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Birrell K.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Potapova A.

Potapova A.serving68% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Birrell K.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Birrell K.Potapova A.
22
Serve
11
43
Return
52

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
42%
43%
Service points won·Even
56%
57%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
62%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.8
3.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
5.5
4.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
65
81
Break points saved·Clear edge
77
89
Break points won·Slight edge
83
88
Deciding sets·Dominant
65
96
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
77
57

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7Hard Elo 1752
Surface ELO
5.3+53 Hard Elo edge
3.8Overall Elo 1754
ELO gap
6.2Overall Elo 1904
10.0
H2H
0.0
7.1
Surface form
5.5
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.0
Minutes 14d
7.7
7.0
3-set count
7.0
9.0
Prev. match
9.0
6.7
Country comfort
4.9
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
93
98

Birrell K.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Potapova A.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°CClear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 32%