Brandon Nakashima vs Raphael CollignonBrisbane Quarter-final

Brisbane · ATP · Quarter-final
#31ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 4 January 2026
hard
#43ATP
1894ELO
1837Hard ELO
$633kYTD
$1.5MCAREER
24 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWWLWW
Nakashima B.
6-3 6-3
Collignon R.
Nakashima B.
662
Collignon R.
330

Brandon Nakashima defeated Raphael Collignon 6-3 6-3 in the Brisbane quarter-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Brandon Nakashima came in ranked #31, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Brandon Nakashima extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-18HamburgR32clayBrandon Nakashima6-5 RET

Serve vs return

This season
Nakashima B.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Collignon R.

Collignon R.serving93% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Nakashima B.Collignon R.
61
Serve
39
23
Return
32

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
68%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
77%
77%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
51%
Service points won·Even
69%
68%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
52%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
9.6
5.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
0.7
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
56
73
Break points saved·Slight edge
99
90
Break points won·Dominant
13
55
Deciding sets·Clear edge
64
80
Tiebreaks·Even
89
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.2
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 63 days (−1.2)
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 44 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
4.2Hard Elo 1788
Surface ELO
5.8+49 Hard Elo edge
4.0Overall Elo 1839
ELO gap
6.0Overall Elo 1894
10.0
H2H
0.0
3.4
Surface form
6.0
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
86
97

Nakashima B.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Collignon R.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 56%