Matteo Arnaldi vs Hugo GastonBrisbane Qualifying Round 1

Brisbane · ATP · Qualifying Round 1
#35ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 4 January 2026
hard
#118ATP
1622ELO
1628Hard ELO
$355kYTD
$4.0MCAREER
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWWWLL
Arnaldi M.
6-1 5-7 7-6
Gaston H.
Arnaldi M.
65772
Gaston H.
17651

Matteo Arnaldi defeated Hugo Gaston 6-1 5-7 7-6 in the Brisbane qualifying round 1 on hard. The result followed the form book — Matteo Arnaldi came in ranked #35, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Matteo Arnaldi extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

  • Match story: Matteo Arnaldi came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 6–1 5–7 7–6.

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-18GenevaR32clayMatteo Arnaldi6-7(6) 6-4 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Arnaldi M.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Gaston H.

Gaston H.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Arnaldi M.Gaston H.
23
Serve
22
Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
56%
53%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
48%
Service points won·Even
58%
59%
Return points won·Even
40%
40%
Break points saved·Even
58%
55%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.5
2.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.4
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (15 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
78
74
Break points saved·Slight edge
97
91
Break points won·Slight edge
51
57
Deciding sets·Slight edge
86
80
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
99
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 69 days (−1.2)
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Injury return: 63 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
5.5+104 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Hard Elo 1628
6.0Overall Elo 1830
ELO gap
4.0Overall Elo 1622
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.0
Surface form
8.5
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
95
50

Arnaldi M.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Gaston H.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 102 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 56%