Alexander Zverev vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli — Paris Masters Round of 32

Paris Masters · ATP · Round of 32
Alexander Zverev
GER3
Alexander Zverev
#3ATP
2100ELO
2042Hard ELO
$6.5MYTD
$66MCAREER
29 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWLWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 27 October 2025
hard
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ARG
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
#59ATP
1759ELO
1642Hard ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLWLW
Zverev A.
6-7 6-1 7-5
Ugo Carabelli C.
Zverev A.
65672
Ugo Carabelli C.
77151

Alexander Zverev defeated Camilo Ugo Carabelli 6-7 6-1 7-5 in the Paris Masters round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Alexander Zverev came in ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending the title. Alexander Zverev extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-07Rome MastersR64clayAlexander Zverev6-2 6-1
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Zverev A.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Ugo Carabelli C.

Ugo Carabelli C.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Zverev A.

Serve advantage — Zverev A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Zverev A.Ugo Carabelli C.
71
Serve
0
42
Return
5

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Zverev A.Ugo Carabelli C.
1st serve in·Slight edge
72%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
68%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
69%
61%
Return points won·Even
37%
38%
Break points saved·Even
61%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.8
3.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (110 vs 87). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Zverev A.Ugo Carabelli C.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
94
78
Break points saved·Slight edge
100
90
Break points won·Dominant
90
62
Deciding sets·Even
99
96
Tiebreaks·Dominant
100
72

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Zverev A.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Ugo Carabelli C.
3.1
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
9.9+400 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.1Hard Elo 1642
9.1Overall Elo 2100
ELO gap
0.9Overall Elo 1759
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.5
Surface form
2.5
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
5.3
Minutes 14d
7.4
4.0
3-set count
9.0
Prev. match
7.0
6.5
Country comfort
Context
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Zverev A.Ugo Carabelli C.
Freshness·Dominant
52
97

Zverev A.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 103 games (7d) · Ugo Carabelli C.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
13°CDrizzle
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 82%
Final
Sinner J.[2]
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
6-47-64
Semi-finals
Sinner J.[2]
Zverev A.[3]
6-06-1
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
Bublik A.[13]
7-636-4
Quarter-finals
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
Vacherot V.
6-26-2
Bublik A.[13]
De Minaur A.[6]
6-756-47-5
Sinner J.[2]
Shelton B.[5]
6-36-3
Zverev A.[3]
Medvedev D.[11]
2-66-37-65
R16
Shelton B.[5]
Rublev A.[12]
7-666-3
De Minaur A.[6]
Khachanov K.[10]
6-26-2
Zverev A.[3]
Davidovich Fokina A.[15]
6-26-4
Sinner J.[2]
Cerundolo F.
7-56-1
Medvedev D.[11]
Sonego L.
3-67-656-4
Vacherot V.
Norrie C.
7-646-4
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
Altmaier D.
3-66-36-2
Bublik A.[13]
Fritz T.[4]
7-656-2
R32
Medvedev D.[11]
Dimitrov G.
W/O
Shelton B.[5]
Cobolli F.
7-646-3
Cerundolo F.
Kecmanovic M.
7-51-67-64
Sinner J.[2]
Bergs Z.
6-46-2
Rublev A.[12]
Tien L.
6-46-4
De Minaur A.[6]
Diallo G.
7-684-66-3
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
Muller A.
5-77-657-64
Vacherot V.
Rinderknech A.
6-796-36-4
Altmaier D.
Ruud C.[8]
6-37-5
Davidovich Fokina A.[15]
Cazaux A.
7-656-4
Sonego L.
Musetti L.[7]
3-66-36-1
Norrie C.
Alcaraz C.[1]
4-66-36-4
Fritz T.[4]
Vukic A.
7-646-2
Bublik A.[13]
Moutet C.
6-37-5
Zverev A.[3]
Ugo Carabelli C.
6-756-17-5
Khachanov K.[10]
Fonseca J.
6-13-66-3
R64
Cazaux A.
Darderi L.
7-657-64
Rinderknech A.
Marozsan F.
7-657-64
Vacherot V.
Lehecka J.[14]
6-16-3
Muller A.
Nakashima B.
6-27-5
Bublik A.[13]
Popyrin A.
6-46-3
Bergs Z.
Michelsen A.
6-32-66-2
Ugo Carabelli C.
Etcheverry T.
7-56-3
Diallo G.
Griekspoor T.
6-36-4
Fonseca J.
Shapovalov D.
5-76-46-3
Dimitrov G.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
7-656-1
Medvedev D.[11]
Munar J.
6-16-3
Tien L.
Borges N.
6-27-67
Cerundolo F.
Dzumhur D.
6-36-3
Sonego L.
Korda S.
6-26-3
Cobolli F.
Machac T.
6-16-4
Altmaier D.
Giron M.
6-27-65
Vukic A.
Atmane T.
6-42-66-4
Norrie C.
Baez S.
6-36-4
Rublev A.[12]
Fearnley J.
6-16-4
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
Comesana F.
6-726-36-3
Kecmanovic M.
Kovacevic A.
6-41-67-62
Moutet C.
Opelka R.
3-67-56-1
Davidovich Fokina A.[15]
Royer V.
4-66-16-4
Khachanov K.[10]
Quinn E.
6-16-1