Casper Ruud vs Denis ShapovalovStockholm Semi-final

Stockholm · ATP · Semi-final
#12ATP
1983ELO
1889Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 13 October 2025
hard
#41ATP
1771ELO
1775Hard ELO
$749kYTD
$15MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLWWL
Ruud C.
6-3 6-4
Shapovalov D.
Ruud C.
662
Shapovalov D.
340

Casper Ruud defeated Denis Shapovalov 6-3 6-4 in the Stockholm semi-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Casper Ruud came in ranked #12, leading the head-to-head 2–1, defending last year's quarter-final. Casper Ruud extended the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Casper Ruud closed it out in two sets, 6–3 6–4.

Head to head

21
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-02-03DallasFhardDenis Shapovalov7-6(5) 6-3
2022-05-09Rome MastersQFclayCasper Ruud7-6(7) 7-5
2021-05-17GenevaFclayCasper Ruud7-6(6) 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Ruud C.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Shapovalov D.

Shapovalov D.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Ruud C.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Ruud C.Shapovalov D.
59
Serve
25
31
Return
70

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
50%
Service points won·Even
66%
63%
Return points won·Even
37%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.2
7.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.0
5.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (70 vs 62). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
91
85
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Even
75
71
Deciding sets·Slight edge
99
92
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
97
84

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.9+114 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Hard Elo 1775
6.6Overall Elo 1983
ELO gap
3.4Overall Elo 1771
0.0
H2H
10.0
5.7
Surface form
5.1
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.7
Minutes 14d
8.3
7.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
7.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
97
98

Ruud C.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Shapovalov D.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
7°COvercast
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 70%