Denis Shapovalov vs Casper RuudDallas Final

Dallas · ATP · Final
#41ATP
1771ELO
1775Hard ELO
$749kYTD
$15MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 3 February 2025
hard
#12ATP
1983ELO
1889Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWWWL
Shapovalov D.
7-6 6-3
Ruud C.
Shapovalov D.
7762
Ruud C.
6530

Denis Shapovalov defeated Casper Ruud 7-6 6-3 in the Dallas final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Casper Ruud came in ranked #12, leading the head-to-head 3–0. Denis Shapovalov claimed a first win over Casper Ruud in four meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

Head to head

03
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-13StockholmSFhardCasper Ruud6-3 6-4
2022-05-09Rome MastersQFclayCasper Ruud7-6(7) 7-5
2021-05-17GenevaFclayCasper Ruud7-6(6) 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Shapovalov D.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Ruud C.

Ruud C.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Shapovalov D.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Shapovalov D.Ruud C.
25
Serve
59
70
Return
31

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
54%
Service points won·Even
63%
66%
Return points won·Even
37%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
67%
Aces / match·Clear edge
7.6
6.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.8
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (62 vs 70). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
85
91
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Even
71
75
Deciding sets·Slight edge
92
99
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
84
97

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.1Hard Elo 1775
Surface ELO
5.9+114 Hard Elo edge
3.4Overall Elo 1771
ELO gap
6.6Overall Elo 1983
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.5
Surface form
7.4
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
6.0
Prev. match
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
97
96

Shapovalov D.: 10 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Ruud C.: 10 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast