Pablo Carreno Busta vs Alejandro TabiloOlbia CH Quarter-final

Olbia CH · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#65ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 13 October 2025
hard
#31ATP
1819ELO
1750Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
29 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWLWWL
Carreno Busta P.
6-3 1-6 7-6
Tabilo A.
Carreno Busta P.
61772
Tabilo A.
36631

Pablo Carreno Busta defeated Alejandro Tabilo 6-3 1-6 7-6 in the Olbia CH quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Alejandro Tabilo came in ranked #31. Pablo Carreno Busta extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-01-03Atp CupRRhardPablo Carreno Busta6-4 7-6(4)

Serve vs return

This season
Carreno Busta P.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Tabilo A.

Tabilo A.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Carreno Busta P.Tabilo A.
21
Serve
51
44
Return
10

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
51%
Service points won·Even
63%
65%
Return points won·Even
40%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
67%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.2
5.9
Double faults / match·Even
1.6
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (91 vs 86). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
78
74
Break points saved·Even
97
97
Break points won·Even
61
59
Deciding sets·Slight edge
80
91
Tiebreaks·Dominant
95
56

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.5Hard Elo 1744
Surface ELO
5.5+6 Hard Elo edge
3.9Overall Elo 1801
ELO gap
6.1Overall Elo 1819
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.4
Surface form
7.9
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3.7
Minutes 14d
6.4
0.0
3-set count
6.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
92
97

Carreno Busta P.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Tabilo A.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast