Mackenzie Mcdonald vs Pavel KotovJinan CH Round of 16

Jinan CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#145ATP
1606ELO
1604Hard ELO
$240kYTD
$7.2MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWLLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 6 October 2025
hard
#249ATP
1597ELO
1601Hard ELO
27 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLLWLWL
Mcdonald M.
7-5 6-2
Kotov P.
Mcdonald M.
762
Kotov P.
520

Mackenzie Mcdonald defeated Pavel Kotov 7-5 6-2 in the Jinan CH round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Mackenzie Mcdonald came in ranked #145, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Mackenzie Mcdonald extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-03-19Miami MastersQ2hardMackenzie Mcdonald6-2 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Mcdonald M.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Kotov P.

Kotov P.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Mcdonald M.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Mcdonald M.Kotov P.
25
Serve
10
Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
50%
Service points won·Even
63%
65%
Return points won·Even
37%
36%
Break points saved·Even
61%
63%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.0
5.7
Double faults / match·Even
2.2
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (91 vs 58). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
56
59
Break points saved·Even
96
94
Break points won·Dominant
66
13
Deciding sets·Dominant
45
82
Tiebreaks·Dominant
44
76

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.9+3 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
5.1Hard Elo 1601
4.9Overall Elo 1606
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1597
10.0
H2H
0.0
6.5
Surface form
2.4
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 8
Fatigue & Travel
4.0
Minutes 14d
9.0
7.0
3-set count
7.0
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
89

Mcdonald M.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast