Carlos Alcaraz vs Brandon NakashimaTokyo Quarter-final

Tokyo · ATP · Quarter-final
#3ATP
2162ELO
2088Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$65MCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 24 September 2025
hard
#32ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
Alcaraz C.
6-2 6-4
Nakashima B.
Alcaraz C.
662
Nakashima B.
240

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Brandon Nakashima 6-2 6-4 in the Tokyo quarter-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Carlos Alcaraz came in ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Carlos Alcaraz extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2021-11-08NextGen FinalsRRhardCarlos Alcaraz4-3(4) 4-1 4-3(4)

Serve vs return

This season
Alcaraz C.serving92% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Nakashima B.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Alcaraz C.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Alcaraz C.Nakashima B.
74
Serve
61
95
Return
23

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
57%
53%
Service points won·Even
68%
68%
Return points won·Slight edge
42%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
62%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.6
9.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.6
1.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (103 vs 82). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
98
56
Break points saved·Even
100
99
Break points won·Dominant
99
13
Deciding sets·Dominant
100
64
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
100
89

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
8.3
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
10.0+301 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.0Hard Elo 1788
10.0Overall Elo 2162
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1839
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.4
Surface form
6.3
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.6
Minutes 14d
6.7
3-set count
7.0
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
88

Nakashima B.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°CPartly cloudy
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 49%