Carlos Alcaraz vs Brandon NakashimaNextGen Finals Round Robin

NextGen Finals · ATP · Round Robin
#2ATP
2162ELO
2088Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$65MCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWL
3 — 0
Sets
Monday, 8 November 2021
hard
#31ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
Alcaraz C.
4-3 4-1 4-3
Nakashima B.
Alcaraz C.
474473
Nakashima B.
341340

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Brandon Nakashima 4-3 4-1 4-3 in the NextGen Finals round robin on hard. The result followed the form book — Carlos Alcaraz came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Carlos Alcaraz extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

  • Match story: Carlos Alcaraz came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 4–3 4–1 4–3.

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-09-24TokyoQFhardCarlos Alcaraz6-2 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Alcaraz C.serving93% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Nakashima B.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Alcaraz C.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Alcaraz C.Nakashima B.
74
Serve
61
95
Return
23

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
57%
54%
Service points won·Even
68%
68%
Return points won·Slight edge
41%
35%
Break points saved·Even
65%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.1
8.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.4
1.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 199). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
98
56
Break points saved·Even
100
99
Break points won·Dominant
99
13
Deciding sets·Dominant
100
64
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
100
89

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.8
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
10.0+301 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.0Hard Elo 1788
10.0Overall Elo 2162
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1839
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.8
Surface form
9.3
Win streak
9.07-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.8
Minutes 14d
6.1
4.0
3-set count
8.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0
2.0
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
86

Nakashima B.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast