Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor FritzTokyo Final

Tokyo · ATP · Final
#2ATP
2162ELO
2088Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$65MCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 24 September 2025
hard
#7ATP
1909ELO
1839Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$31MCAREER
28 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWW
Alcaraz C.
6-4 6-4
Fritz T.
Alcaraz C.
662
Fritz T.
440

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Taylor Fritz 6-4 6-4 in the Tokyo final on hard. The result followed the form book — Carlos Alcaraz came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 4–1. Carlos Alcaraz extended the head-to-head to 5–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Carlos Alcaraz edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

41
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-09Tour FinalsRRhardCarlos Alcaraz6-7(2) 7-5 6-3
2025-09-19Laver CupRRhardTaylor Fritz6-3 6-2
2025-06-30WimbledonSFgrassCarlos Alcaraz6-4 5-7 6-3 7-6(6)
2024-09-20Laver CupRRhardCarlos Alcaraz6-2 7-5
2023-03-20Miami MastersQFhardCarlos Alcaraz6-4 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Alcaraz C.serving92% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Fritz T.

Fritz T.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Alcaraz C.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Alcaraz C.Fritz T.
74
Serve
76
95
Return
32

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
80%
2nd serve points won·Even
57%
54%
Service points won·Even
68%
71%
Return points won·Slight edge
42%
35%
Break points saved·Even
67%
68%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.6
12.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.6
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (103 vs 87). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
98
87
Break points saved·Even
100
100
Break points won·Dominant
99
60
Deciding sets·Even
100
98
Tiebreaks·Even
100
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
8.0
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.4+250 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.6Hard Elo 1839
8.6Overall Elo 2162
ELO gap
1.4Overall Elo 1909
6.1
H2H
3.9
7.4
Surface form
7.3
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.6
Minutes 14d
8.2
3-set count
7.0
9.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0
5.0
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
63

Fritz T.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 103 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°CPartly cloudy
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 49%