Marketa Vondrousova vs Aryna SabalenkaBerlin Semi-final

Berlin · WTA · Semi-final
#120WTA
1907ELO
1791Grass ELO
$33kYTD
$12MCAREER
27 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLLWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 16 June 2025
grass
#1WTA
2220ELO
1987Grass ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Vondrousova M.
6-2 6-4
Sabalenka A.
Vondrousova M.
662
Sabalenka A.
240

Marketa Vondrousova defeated Aryna Sabalenka 6-2 6-4 in the Berlin semi-final on grass. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 5–2, defending last year's quarter-final. Marketa Vondrousova narrowed the head-to-head to 5–3.

Key context

Head to head

25
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-08-07CincinnatiR64hardAryna Sabalenka7-5 6-1
2024-04-15StuttgartQFclayMarketa Vondrousova3-6 6-3 7-5
2023-01-02Adelaide 1QFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 7-5
2022-01-17Australian OpenR32hardAryna Sabalenka4-6 6-3 6-1
2021-03-22MiamiR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-1 6-2
2018-06-11S-HertogenboschR32grassAryna Sabalenka0-6 7-5 6-3
2018-03-05Indian WellsR32hardMarketa Vondrousova6-2 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Vondrousova M.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Sabalenka A.serving87% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Vondrousova M.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
44%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
63%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
65%
Aces / match·Even
4.8
4.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.9
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 90). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
88
98
Break points saved·Slight edge
91
98
Break points won·Even
99
100
Deciding sets·Slight edge
89
97
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
85
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
2.3Grass Elo 1791
Surface ELO
7.7+196 Grass Elo edge
0.7Overall Elo 1907
ELO gap
9.3Overall Elo 2220
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.2
Surface form
6.8
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Country comfort
5.8
3.0
Surface transition
3.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
7.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
88

Sabalenka A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
19°CDrizzle
Wind 21 km/hHumidity 62%